Photo: Mark Lee

Spend a day or so in Washington, D.C., and it is easy to understand how the nation's capital gives life to Aristotle's observation that "Man is by nature a political animal."

On early morning metro trains, cell phones bleep and commuters hang on to overhead railings while talking about AIDS legislation. On the streets of the city, men and women dressed in business suits hurry down the sidewalks debating foreign policy.

And in a hotel banquet room in the shadow of the U.S. Capitol, the eyes of those people attending the conference of the American Land Title Association are fixed upon their luncheon speaker, a trim man with dark, graying hair and glasses, dressed in a dark business suit and red tie, as he paces before the lectern that he occasionally leans upon.

With an infrequent glance at the papers he grips in his left hand, Stuart Rothenberg '78 Ph.D., is part political pundit and part stand-up comic as he breaks down the political landscape for the upcoming U.S. presidential election. In the bare knuckles world of 21st-century presidential politics, there are blue states for Democrats, red states for Republicans and about a dozen white states that will swing either way.

"Those of you who live in the 10-12 are relevant ... the rest of you are not. I'm sure you're all very nice people..." he says, pausing as the audience breaks out in howls of laughter. "If you're from Ohio, fake being a swing voter. You'll get a lot of attention."

A man asks a question about whether Democrats in Ohio can challenge Republican Senator George Voinovich in 2005.

"The Ohio state party is a mess. There's nothing I can do about it," Rothenberg answers, smiling as he shrugs his shoulders. "I'm probably talking to the Democratic state committee chairman."

There is more laughter as the lunch ends, the applause rises and a gaggle of conferees surround Rothenberg to ask more questions about their local political races before heading out to their next meeting.

The speech is one of many Rothenberg will give throughout the nation to similar groups this year, as the seemingly interminable 2004 presidential campaign moves toward the November election. He also serves as a regular analyst for CNN's daily political program, "Inside Politics;" appears on NBC's "Meet the Press" and C-SPAN; and writes two columns a week for Roll Call, the newspaper that covers Congress. Then there is his writing for The Rothenberg Political Report, the biweekly nonpartisan newsletter that he has published since 1989 and where his analysis of Congressional elections, gubernatorial elections and general political trends is considered a "must-read" for political insiders.

For the former political science professor who has spent nearly 25 years as one of the most respected political analysts in the nation, a presidential election year is the Super Bowl, NCAA Final Four, World Series and Master's golf championship all rolled into one.

"Does this seem like a real job? No," Rothenberg says, sitting among the political memorabilia, such as a hand puppet of former President Ronald Reagan, that surrounds his desk. "When it comes to politics, nothing captures the public's imagination more than a presidential election. Each election cycle is different, but Washington, D.C., is a company town and the business is politics. Everybody talks politics."

Everybody includes the inhabitants of Embassy Row in northwest Washington, where the representatives of foreign governments regularly invite Rothenberg, among a small number of respected analysts such as Michael Barone of U.S. News & World Report and Norman Ornstein of the American Enterprise Institute, to learn what is happening politically in the United States in order to provide world leaders with an accurate assessment of the political landscape. Washington-based reporters and political reporters from around the nation call Rothenberg for his insight and to provide him with "on the ground" views of local and state politics, helping him to assess important Congressional and state elections. He also meets with Democratic and Republican insiders to gain information about emerging political strategies.

"A lot of people in this town look to Stu to be nonpartisan and give an honest assessment of what's going on," says Nathan Gonzales, a former associate producer for CNN's "Capital Gang" and writer for CNN.com who has worked with Rothenberg for the past three years. "In a very partisan city, Stu is a breath of fresh air."

Photo: Peter Morenus

Political analyst Stuart Rothenberg '78 Ph.D. appears regularly as a guest on CNN's daily "Inside Politics" program.

His ability to provide incisive, nonpartisan analysis is the key to why Rothenberg's views are eagerly anticipated by party insiders, politicians and the media, including his chief competition.

"I don't think anybody reads his stuff any closer than I do," says Charlie Cook, a longtime friend who publishes the competing newsletter, The Cook Political Report. "Whenever we disagree, which isn't often, I look at it real hard because there's a 50 percent chance I'm wrong.

When I find myself in agreement with him, I'm a lot more comfortable with my position. He's a blend of academic credentials and living in the real world of politics."

Rothenberg says he often thinks back to how his professors at the University of Connecticut, such as Garry Clifford and the late G. Lowell Field, might view current political situations. He credits his academic training for honing his analytical skills, building the confidence he needed to master his subject and providing him with the ability to remain objective in his analysis. Not that he avoids offering an opinion.

"Most of my strong opinions are about who's a good candidate and who isn't," he says. "I might hate a candidate because he's arrogant but still think he can win."

Tim Curran, editor of Roll Call, values Rothenberg's ability to take such a selfless approach to politics in a city where many pundits simply shout over the din to be heard. "Stu is different than a lot of people who put their primary emphasis on trying to look smart," he says. "Stu's primary emphasis is on trying to figure out what's actually going on and how to convey that. He understands Washington as well as anybody I know."

It also plays well in the nonstop cable television world of CNN, especially on election night. "Stu has the benefit of not only being an expert but being able to make his expertise understandable for the general public. There aren't many people who can do that, "says former CNN Washington bureau chief Frank Sesno, now a professor of public policy and communication at George Mason University in Virginia. "The whole issue of Congressional races and politics is fraught with minefields and ideology. He knows the races, where the money is being spent and where the parties are putting their resources to make a race out of it."

"I am Stu's biggest fan," says Judy Woodruff, host of CNN's "Inside Politics." "He's got a great sense of humor. He's somebody you can shoot the breeze with and a few seconds later, you're discussing a very detailed Congressional redistricting situation."

Besides his avid passion for politics, his office dŽcor also reflects his long affection for baseball and UConn basketball.

A native New Yorker, a framed poster of Babe Ruth hangs over his desk and he faces a wall that bears the yellowing front page of the Washington Post sports section proclaiming the 1999 UConn men's basketball team as national champions. He and Gonzales chat up the latest baseball statistics in order to keep pace with their Rotisserie baseball teams. At times, he can combine his love of baseball and politics, such as giving a speech before a group meeting at the Louisville Slugger Museum. After the speech, he was invited by one of the guests to attend the induction ceremonies at the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, N.Y., where he met one of his childhood heroes — Bobby Richardson, the former second baseman of the New York Yankees.

He periodically issues an edition of his newsletter titled "Out of Center: Sports according to The Rothenberg Political Report," in which he demonstrates an insight to sports that matches his political acuity: "St. Joseph's is a solid team, but nobody has any idea how good they are. Their schedule is weak," he wrote in early February of this year, well before the NCAA basketball tournament. "I'll be surprised — no , shocked — if they make it to the Final Four ... Until that happens, we should all be skeptical."

Remaining skeptical is what allows Rothenberg to keep a wary eye on the shifting political environment. He would like to see more than the handful of competitive Congressional races that redistricting produced following the 2000 census. He describes the political air on Capitol Hill as "very partisan, very combative," wistfully recalling the days when instead of running back to their districts for fund-raisers every weekend, members of Congress and their families socialized and then debated the issues during the week.

However, as long as there are elections each November, Rothenberg will look at the numbers, talk to everyone and call election races as he sees them.

As to the 2004 presidential election, Rothenberg says he finds the daily grind of coverage since February, when Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts became the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party, getting "a little tedious" even for most political junkies.

"I think a lot of what we're doing now is overkill. There's a long way to go," he says. "I believe this presidential election will be determined by events yet to come."